Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

cry about it

@Henrieta B the chances of him getting that lucky legitimately are approx 1/7.5trillion, thats 0.0...% chance of his run being legit. We can be as certain he cheated as we can of pretty much anything else in our lives. Can I no longer call my mum and dad my parents because there is a 1/10,000 chance I'm adopted and wasnt informed? If I told you I wrote a pullitzer prize winnng novel by mashing my hand on a keyboard randomly would you beleve me? Would you think "well theres a chance so I guess we cant know for sure? or would you correctly deduce I'd actually just typed it out? Why should Dream be any different, we make statements of certainty about things that are statistically far more likely to be false every single day. Regarding the rest of your argument, there are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible seeds in minecraft so I guess every run is logically insanely lucky right? Even the ones where the seed is terrible for running and the person gets terrible drops you've still say that was a lucky run? Prior knowleds andf intent is an essential factor in probability. If I threw a dart out of a plane and it hit a bullseye and you threw a dart out and it landed in the middle of a field, while the probability of the darts landing in those exact locations is the same my throw would have been more lucky because the target was to hit the bullseye. In Dreams case the target is to get ender pearls and blaze rods and he is the getting that bullseye. Going back to the chance of having generated any world from a seed the difference is that if it werent for the seed you got it would have just been a different one. If it werent for you being born it would have been a different child etc. Surely we can agree that getting a seed with close by stronghold and a 12 eye portal is lucker than a world with a far away fortress, 0 eye portal, no nearby lava pools, villages or useful structures and, bad bastion gold even though the chances of getting those individual seeds is the same?

@Henrieta B The issue here though is that he had this luck not once, not twice, but consistently over 6 streams, almost totaling close to ~200 runs. At this point it's pretty obvious something is up, because the coding in MC doesn't just mess up like that over and over that many times in a row. RNG is random, but it's still a coded function within the game, and the coding doesn't support what Dream got. A good example is the GEblackr Karl Jobst, who decided to run millions of simulations on MC's default settings to try to replicate Dream's luck, and there were none that came even a fraction of the way close to the luck Dream was getting. It's pretty safe to assume he modded his game behind the scenes.

@morbideddie Either way that doesn't really change anything l said. I'm not trying to prove that Dream didn't cheat. All l'm saying is that no one has proof of him cheating. Speculations is not proof. Random numbers is not proof. Chances are such unpredictable things. I mean the odds of either of us being born were 1 in 400 trillion. Chances of both of us surviving to our age is obviously pretty high but still worth considering. Chances of you seeing my comment were extremely low, chances of me even writing a comment were even lower. Literally the chances of us having this conversation at this exact moment are so astronomically low they would be deemed impossible by any sane person. Yet here we are. Having a civil discussion about this like it's nothing.

@Henrieta B it’s mentioned in both geosquares video and paper and dreams paper agrees with the number. The 1/7.5trillion number is the is the chance of anyone in the MC speedrunning community ever getting that lucky.

@morbideddie Also where did you even get that number from? I don't remember anyone mentioning 1 in 20 sextilion chances

Yeah the fact that he basically tried to rob people who actually put the time and effort to speedrun the game from the recognition they deserve and the fact that he still has not apologized for it while effectively hiding behind his stans is nothing big I agree...

o o f

Lol, that will be crazy

he posted this vid for money. you could literally easily deduce from the first few mins of watching this.

@LoliLicker yeah yeah I know, loli licker, my man morbideddie has told me that and I don't need others to remind me the same thing again.

@A FO you get 1 in 7.5 trillion odds after correcting the biases wtf r u on about

@A FO I agree that luck dependent speedruns and not ideal and it should come down to skill but if Dream also didn’t like that aspect he could have run a different game or the set seed category. He chose to run random seed in a luck dependent game so it’s really on him. Alternately there are loads of speed running live events and races he could take part in if he doesn’t want to endlessly grind runs. Matpat offered this a solution but it already exists so that’s another option.

@morbideddie If you'll allow a slight digression i may ask, imagine getting a speedrunning world record, all you had to do is being lucky and it no longer requires hard practices and speedrunning skills as before though. How ridiculous and ironic.

Well, I gotta admit that I'm not smart enough to digest and understand all the information you gave me, and I'm not bothered to check it, but i guess he cheated. Although the drama doesn't matter anymore, but still, good job on that. That's truly really rewardable. ╮(･o･)╭ Move on.

Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.

EYYY ITS A STARCRAFT FAN AFTER LIKE A COUPLE YEARS I FIND A FELLOW STARCRAFT "ER" OUTSIDE OF STARCRAFT RELATED STUFF!!! I only play sc2 only played the first 1 or 2 missions of sc 1

@SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math. geblack.info/for/mJ6M0reXhX-g4NQ/video.html geblack.info/for/arGnmbeagbBpuro/video.html

@Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants

There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.

@Sun-Moon-Dragon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

nobody cares

He did give an answer. It just wasn’t “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat”.

FOr htose who want the answer he cheated

I could of just read the top comment but ok